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Prof. Rolf Pfeifer, Computer scientist

Prof. Rolf Pfeifer is Director of the Artificial Intelligence Laboratory of the University of Zurich.

In his research, he examines a number of issues in connection with artificial life, mobile robots and biorobotics.

The following piece was written for the publication «Unimagazin.»

The tale of the intelligent monsters (Die Mär von den intelligenten Monstern)

Will computers soon become more intelligent than people? Will we be enslaved by power-hungry robots in the near future? If one wants to believe the prognoses of certain self-appointed prophets, this will be the case in twenty to fifty years. Why such prognoses are scientifically untenable is shown by the research at the Artificial Intelligence Lab.

Incorrect prognoses are ubiquitous: Weather forecasts are chronically off, while the same holds for predictions about the development of the economy and the stock market. Yet in matters of incorrect prognoses, artificial intelligence strikes in all disciplines. For instance, the recently deceased political scientist and Nobel Prize winner in economics Herbert Simon – one of the founding fathers of artificial intelligence – had prophesied back in 1965: «Machines will be capable, within twenty years, of doing any work that a man can do.»

In his grandiose film «2001: A Space Odyssey» based on Arthur C. Clarke’s novel, Stanley Kubrick predicted back in 1968 that by the year 2001, computers would not only understand natural, spoken language but would also possess emotions and corresponding empathy. Now we write the year 2001, and we are already 16 years past the horizon of Simon’s prognosis. As is quite apparent, the two predictions have not been fulfilled. Many more such examples could be cited.

How does it come to be then that the predictions of self-designated prophets like Hans Moravec, Ray Kurzweil, Hugo de Garis, Kevin Warwick and Bill Joy are nevertheless taken seriously and further propagated by a broad swath of the public – by scientists, engineers and technology experts as well as by journalists and politicians?

(from «Unimagazin,» 3/01, p. 23-26: Die Mär von den intelligenten Monstern. Rolf Pfeifer)






				complete text in German